摘要
利用系统动力学原理(System Dynamics,简称SD)与方法,以海南农垦国营西庆农场为实证,设计了针对橡胶农场或胶园经营单位等由不同龄段组成的胶园生产动态系统管理SD模型,利用该模型可对胶园结构以及胶园生产在人力、物质、资金与产出能力等方面进行年际变化预测,并通过系统动力学模拟软件STELLA对某国营农场进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合当前胶园管理实际。
System Dynamics （SD） and its methodology were used to build a production management dynamic system model for rubber plantations of various ages in rubber state farms and units with Xiqing State Farm as an example. This model was used to forecast the annual change of rubber plantation structure, labor, material, investment, output capability, and so on. The SD simulation software was used to make a case analysis of the Xiqing State Farm, and the analysis was rather compliant with the current rubber plantation management.
出处
《热带农业科学》
2008年第2期49-54,共6页
Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture
关键词
橡胶林
生产动态
SD模型
模拟
预测
rubber plantations
production dynamic
system dynamic model
simulation
forecast
