摘要
根据不同的经济政策时期对耕地的不同影响情况,将1952-2003年分为3个时间段:1952-1983,1984-1998,1999-2003年.以SPSS统计软件为工具,利用各段的耕地数据资料,分别分析了耕地变化情况及其驱动因子.同时还对50年的耕地变化情况进行了总体分析,并进一步探讨了影响耕地动态变化的驱动因子.再运用多元回归分析,预测出2020,2030,2040年的数量.结果表明,50年来,四川省耕地数量总体呈现出下降趋势,人口因素、农业科技进步因素和经济发展动态因素是其主要驱动因子.
According to the different influence on farmland brought by different economic policies, the period from 1952 to 2003 is divided into three stages： 1952-1983,1984-1998,1999-2003. By means of the farmland data in these stages, the essay analyzes the change and driving factors of farmland, respectively, with SPSS statistical software ; moreover it generally analyses the change of farmland over the fifty years and further discusses the driving factors of the dynamic. Then, this paper predicts the quantity of farmland in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with the multivariate regression analysis. The result indicates that the quantity of farmland in Sichuan province has a general decrease over the past 50 years. The population, the advance of agriculture science and technology and the economic development are the main driving factors.
出处
《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期361-367,共7页
Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）
基金
四川省重大培育基金(07ZZ031)资助项目
关键词
耕地动态变化
驱动因子
主成分分析
四川省
Dynamic change of farmland
Driving factor
Principal component analysis
Sichuan province
