摘要
基于山东省典型植保站1990-2004年逐年棉铃虫各主要危害代的累计卵量、发生程度和同期气象资料,利用DPS数据处理系统,对关键气象因子进行多元逐步回归,建立各代棉铃虫累计卵量、发生程度等的中短期气象预测模式。历史回代以及对2005年试预报效果均较好,可以为当发棉铃虫监测预报和有效防治提供服务,对农业防灾减灾具有重要的指导意义。
Based on meteorological and historical statistical data on the accumulative amount of bollworm （Heliothis armigera） eggs and occurrence of the bollworm from 1990 to 2004 collected by Shandong Plant Protecting Station. A short-medium term meteorological prediction model was established involving the accumulative amount of bollworm eggs and the degree of bollworm occurrence, by using the DPS data-processing system and the multiple regression method for the key meteorological factors. The results of the validation for 2005 and the last few years were preferable. The results provided references to monitoring and prediction of the bollworms and were of great significance for the guidance of prevention and reduction of agricultural disasters.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2008年第2期224-229,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
中国气象局课题“重大作物病虫害发生发展气象条件等级业务预报技术研究”
关键词
棉铃虫
气象条件
预测模型
Bollworm （ Heliothis armigera）
Meteorological conditions
Prediction model
