摘要
文章应用熵理论不仅论述企业的并购行为,而且还解释了企业的并购动机。然后,利用参数和非参数检验,证明企业的连续并购与间隔并购样本是有差别的。对于企业的连续并购行为,可以选取合适的变量来进行预测。最后,应用四大类别熵建立了logistic模型,对企业的连续并购行为进行了预测研究。结果表明,以四大类别熵作为自变量所建的模型对企业下一年的连续并购行为有很强的预测能力,远高于仅有常数项的预测模型。
This article applies the entropy theories not only to discuss the mergers and acquisitions （M＆A） of enterprises, but also to explain its motive. By using the parameter and non-parameter examination, the difference of the sample between the continuous M＆A and partition M＆A is studied. We can choose reasonable variables to predict the continuous M＆A in enterprises. At last we apply four categories of entropy variables to establish logistic model to predict the continuous M＆A. The result is that the logistic model that we use four categories of entropy variables to build has stronger predictability to the continuous M＆A in the next year than the model only contain constant items.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2008年第5期149-153,共5页
Reformation & Strategy
关键词
连续并购
熵
类别熵
预测
continuous mergers and acquisitions
entropy
category entropy
predict
