摘要
为了有效地防御吉林省夏季出现的低温冷害,对夏季低温的预测因子进行了研究。通过概率统计、合成分析和相关分析等方法,对吉林省夏季气温与环流场、海温场、ENSO循环、太阳活动、极涡和西太平洋副热带高压等的对应关系进行了研究,运用几率波的概念,提炼出有预报意义的几率关键区。结果表明,前期环流场和海温场持续异常均会造成吉林省夏季低温;早发型的E lN ino事件当年,晚发型的E l N ino事件次年,太阳黑子谷值年以及前一年夏末秋初极涡中心纬度偏北、秋冬季副高面积指数偏小,易导致吉林省夏季低温;前一年冬季关键区几率波点数和模型场关键区几率波点数的一致率达40%以上时,吉林省夏季也容易出现低温。
In order to defend the low temprature and cold damage in Jilin Province, the study on forecasting factors of summer low temperature is of significance. According to methods of probabilistic statistics, composite analysis and correlation analysis, the relationship between summer temperature in Jilin Province and circulation, sea surface temperature, cycle of ENSO, solar activities, polar vortex, subtropical high over the west Pacific Ocean are researched and the probabilistic key area with forecast meaning is presented by using the idea of probability wave. The results show that the continued anomaly of circulation field and sea surface temperature field in early stage can lead to summer low temperature in Jilin Province, and in the years with some special astronomical and meteorological phenomena, the summer low lemparature can also occures in Jilin Province.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期156-160,共5页
Journal of Natural Disasters
关键词
吉林省
夏季低温
预测因子
Jilin Province
summer＇s low temperature
forecast factor
