摘要
根据GM(1,1)灰色模型的指数特性,首先对原始数据取λ次幂以降低原始数据的分散性,再通过在区间上求积分计算模型的背景值,并采用最小二乘法求解最优的模型初始值由此建立改进灰色预测模型,将其应用到某高速公路沉降预测计算,结果表明,改进模型较之原GM(1,1)模型模拟和预测精度要高.
According to the exponential function form of the GM （1, 1） model, the data was firstly processed into powerlogarithmic series so as to reduce the scatterence of data. Then a new method to build the background value based on quadratic interpolation was used. At the same time the initial value was improved though the least square method. Accordingly, an improved grey prediction model was put forward; and an actual example of a highway was used. A conclusion was obtained that the improved grey prediction model based on it is of higher precision than the original one.
出处
《中国计量学院学报》
2008年第2期162-165,共4页
Journal of China Jiliang University
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(No.06JJ5079)
关键词
灰色理论
最小二乘法
沉降
预测
grey theory
the least square method settlement prediction
