摘要
基于1980-2004年能源统计数据,首先利用通径分析法测算了一次能源消费结构、技术、管理因素与单位GDP能耗强度的关系,定量分析了各一次能源消费构成比例(煤,石油,天然气,水电等消耗比例)对单位GDP能耗的直接、间接和总影响程度;结果表明:技术水平及管理水平等不可测因素对我国单位GDP能耗起决定作用,石油消耗比例为单位GDP能耗变化的主要限制性因素,故在煤的消费比例下降幅度较小的情况下,要想达到节能降耗的目的,必须首先重视技术的进步及管理水平的提高,同时提高石油的使用比例,尤其要重视水电的发展。然后利用通径分析结果消除了多重共线性的影响,建立了单位GDP能耗同一次能源消费结构及其它相关因素间的多元回归模型,分析了能源消费结构的调整和优化对节能降耗的影响途径及影响效应。
Based on the data of the energy statistics from 1980 to 2004, this paper measured the relationship between the primary energy consumption structure, technique, management and the energy use per unit of GDP using the path analysis approach, and presented the degree of the direct,indirect and the overall influence horn the primary energy consumption structure to the energy use per unit of GDP. The results show that the imponderables such as the technical and management level played a decisive role to the energy use per unit of GDP, and the ratio of oil consumption was a major limiting factor to energy use per unit of GDP. Therefore, in the proportion of coal consumption, rate decline is smaller. In order to achieve the purpose of energy saving, we must first attach importance to technological progress and raise the management level, and raise the proportion of oil use, with particular emphasis on the hydropower development. We eliminated the multicollinearity in the model with the path analysis result and finally analyzed the influence and the effect horn the primary energy consumption structure to the energy conservation.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第4期38-43,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:7012100170473072)
关键词
一次能源消费结构
能耗强度
通径分析
structure of the primary energy consumption
energy intensity
path analysis
