摘要
政府管制对于大宗商品的定价有何影响?对于价格的波动性又有何影响?这些关系国家经济、经贸乃至国家安全的大宗敏感商品政府应该如何管?这些都是目前国家宏观调控中非常重要而又迫切需要解决的问题。本文以世界糖产业政府管制及国内外糖现、期货实证研究表明,政府管制对于大宗商品的价格及波动性有着重要的影响。具体而言,政府管制使得国际糖价长期低于生产成本,世界食糖市场被严重扭曲。东京谷物交易所原糖、纽约期货交易所原糖期货和郑州商品交易所白糖期货均存在严重的杠杆效应;半衰期由长到短依次为:伦糖、美糖、郑糖、昆糖、东京糖。在文章的最后,通过分析给出了大宗敏感商品政府管制一般的路径和方法。
What impact does government control have on the pricing of bulky sensitive goods(BSG) ? What is the effect of government control upon price fluctuation? And how should the government manage BSG that affect the national economy,foreign trade and even the state security? All these are questions and problems that are crucially important for the state macro control and adjustment and that need urgently to be surmounted.The results of our case study on the government control all over the world over the sugar industry and on spot goods and futures both at home and abroad,indicate that government control exerts powerful influence over the prices of BSG and their rise and fall.Concretely,government control has,for a long time,made the international sugar prices lower than the production costs,to cause the world sugar markets to be critically distorted.There exists deep leverage effect in raw sugar on the Tokyo Grain Exchange,in raw sugar futures on the New York Futures Exchange and in white sugar futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: the order of the length—from the longest to the shortest— of the semi-recession period is that for the London sugar,the American sugar,the Zhengzhou sugar,the Kunming sugar,the Tokyo sugar.At the end of this paper,we have offered to the government the general path to and the method of controlling the prices of BSG.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期40-49,共10页
Journal of Management World
基金
上海市高校人文社会科学重点研究基地上海对外贸易学院国际经济贸易研究所资助
上海市教委重点学科建设项目资助(J51201)
