摘要
三峡工程具有巨大综合利用效益。工程建设的特点是投资总量大，建设周期长，工程系统复杂，不确定性因素多，影响大。投资风险成为投资者非常关注的问题。运用图示评审技术（ＧＥＲＴ）与含相关因素处理的蒙特卡洛随机模拟相结合的计算模型，可以对这种风险的大小进行量化分析。ＧＥＲＴ随机网络直接参考施工网络图绘制，使投资分解、风险因素辨识、量化等更具直观性，使分析过程更接近于实际。该投资风险分析模型。
Three Gorges Project has huge comprehensive utilization benefit,and many engineering construction features,such as large investment cost, long construction time,complicated engineering system, many factors of uncertainty,and great influence upon society.Thus, the investment risk has become an issue for which investors are extremely concerned. This risk can be quantitatively analysed, using the computation model which is developed by combining the graphic estimation and review technique (GERT) with Monte Garlo random simulation including correlation factor handling function.GERT random network is worked out by directly referring to relevant construction network charts,so as to bring the investment resolution,risk factor identification,and risk quantification to be more visualized,as well as the analysing process more approaching the actual one. This investment risk analysis model is adaptable for water conservancy and hydropwoer engineering system.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
1997年第7期4-6,共3页
Yangtze River
关键词
风险分析
工程投资
水利枢纽
投资风险
Risk analysis\ Project investment\ Analogy technique\ Stochastic programming\ Sanxia Multipurpose Project
