摘要
为量度区域虚拟水战略实施的适宜性以及虚拟水战略背景对区域经济社会生态等的影响程度,定义了区域虚拟水战略优势度概念,并分析了其影响因素,从水资源禀赋、非农水资源需求、水资源管理和农业发展现状4个方面构建了一个包含12个指标的综合定量评价体系,进而运用综合指数法对我国内陆31个省级行政区虚拟水战略优势度进行了定量评价。在评价结果基础上,将31个省(市、区)划分成高优势度组、较高优势度组、中等优势度组和低优势度组4种类型区,并给出每一类型组虚拟水战略背景下的农业发展、水资源规划管理和虚拟水研究等方面的差别性建议。从空间分布上来看,我国虚拟水战略优势度区域差异非常明显,呈现较为典型的"东部高、西部低","南部和北部高、中间低"的带状分布规律;从虚拟水战略优势度等级结构来看,基本呈现"中间多,两头少"的纺锤型分布规律。
We describe an approach called Advantage Value of Regional Virtual Water Strategy （AVRVWS） which can be used to evaluate the feasibility of implementing a virtual water strategy and the regional economic, social and ecological effects of a global water resources management strategy. Based on context analysis and relevant impact factors, we established an assessment index system with 12 indices in 4 categories： water resource supply, demand for non-agricultural water resources, water resource management and agricultural development. The value of AVRVWS for 31 Chinese provinces is calculated using the comprehensive index model, and the provinces are then grouped into 4 categories ranging from high to low. The high advantage group includes Hainan, Tianjin and Beijing. The relatively high advantage group includes 9 provinces ： Shanxi, Guangdong, Liaoning, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian. The moderate advantage group includes 14 provinces： Qinghai, Hebei, Hunan, Jilin, Yunnan, Ningxia, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Gansu, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Anhui. The low advantage group includes 5 provinces： Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan and Guizhou. These four groups can also be divided into two sub-types according to their virtual water input or output. Different suggestions about agricultural development, water resource management and virtual water research were put forward for the different groups. The regions which have a relatively advantageous setting and abundant water resources should intensify water use in agriculture in order to effectively utilize water resources, and improve research on the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of water use. The regions which are in the relatively advantaged groups and are short of water resources should gradually reduce water-intensive agriculture in order to reduce irrigation and should also study the impacts of virtual water use On the economy and ecology. The assessment results demonstrate notable regional discrepancies in the grades of AVRVWS throughout China, with most provinces are in the medium-grade category. The grades in eastern China are higher than in the western regions, and in the south and north are higher than that of the central regions.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第8期1122-1128,共7页
Resources Science
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(编号:KZCX3-SW-441)
湖南省社会科学规划项目(编号:06YB130)
湖南省人文地理重点学科成果
