摘要
为了克服现有需水量预测方法未考虑原始数据测量误差的缺陷，以扬州市1999～2006年的GDP及用水量作为原始数据，建立了需水量预测的线性测量误差模型，并对扬州市2010年、2015年和2020年的需水量进行了预测．与普通线性回归方法的对比结果表明，线性测量误差模型预测精度较高，其预测结果可以为节约用水规划及水资源规划提供依据．
The general water demand forecasting methods don＇t consider raw data measurement errors. In this paper, a linear measurement error model is proposed to improve the general methods, and the model is verified with the GDP and water consumption data from Yangzhou City from 1999 to 2006. Then, the model is applied to forecast the water demand of Yangzhou City in the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. The results show that, compared with the ordinary linear regression method, the presented model has higher precision, and the forecast results can provide a basis for water conservation and water resources planning.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期488-490,共3页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金(50609023)
扬州大学科技创新培育基金(2007CXJ007)
关键词
需水量预测
线性模型
测量误差
校正似然
forecasting of water demand
linear model
measurement error
corrected likelihood
