摘要
根据1961—2005年新疆博州4站逐日降水资料,用气候趋势系数及Monte Carlo检验、t检验研究了降水量与降水日的长期变化趋势与突变时间。结果表明:(1)博州地区年与冬季降水量均在1977年前后突变增加,夏季降水量均在1998年前后增加,大部分地区年与冬夏降水量的长期增加趋势达到0.05以上的显著性水平。(2)年降水量的增加主要是由日降水量≥0.1mm的降水日数增加造成的,其次是不同区域不同季节日降水量≥0.1mm的日平均降水量强度的增加。(3)年与冬季日降水量≥0.1mm的降水日数约在1975年前后突变增加,45a里增加了7～8d。(4)0.0mm的降水日除精河外,其余地区均在1975年前后突变减少,阿拉山口减少最多,约10.5d,其余减少3～5d。其中,秋、冬季大范围在1975年前后突变减少。(5)博河上游地区年与冬夏日平均降水强度均出现了显著的突增现象。(6)夏季日平均降水强度除精河外,其余也均在1998年前后有一次显著的突增。
Based on the daily precipitation data during 1961-2005 from four meteorological stations over Bole region, the long-term variation trend about precipitation and wet days were studied as well as their abrupt turning points by the methods of climatic tendency coefficient, Monte Carlo test and t-test technique. The results are followed as below： （1） The annual and winter precipitation suddenly increased in 1977 or so and the summer precipitation had happened abrupt change in 1998 or so, their longLterm increased trend are remarkable at the significant level of 0.05 or more in most areas. （2）The increment of annual precipitation was primarily caused by that of increasing wet days with daily precipitation ≥0.1mm, secondly, that of enhancement for daily precipitation intensity in the different areas and the various seasons.（3）The wet days of annual and winter with daily precipitation ≥0.1mm abruptly increased in 1975 or so and they had been added 7 or 8 days in the 45 years.（4） The wet days of annual with daily precipitation--0.0mm suddenly decreased in 1975 or so except Jinghe County, and this decreased trend was the biggest in Alashankou where about 10.5 days lost in 45 years, and 3-5 days lost in other areas. In regard to season, this kind change was remarkable in winter and autumn. （5）The daily mean rainfall intensity in annual, winter and summer had appeared to be notable abrupt rise in Boertala River upstream areas. （6）In summer, the daily mean rainfall intensity appeared a sudden increase in 1998 or so except Jinghe County.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2008年第3期12-17,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
新疆博州
降水量
降水日
变化趋势
突变分析
Bole region of Xinjiang
precipitation
wet day
variation tendency
abrupt change analysis
