摘要
文章利用1996～2006年中国工业行业的面板数据，首先从整体上估计了工业品进、出口对工业行业总体就业的影响，并分部门检验了工业品贸易的就业效应，以考察工业品进、出口对就业影响的行业差异。整体估计结果表明，工业品进口会减少对劳动力的需求，工业品出口能够促进就业。分部门估计结果表明，工业品进、出口对就业的影响存在明显的部门差异。但从长期来看，不能过分依赖出口贸易拉动就业增长，必须增加国内需求；也不能因为工业品进口暂时减少了对劳动力的需求而采取限制进口的政策，而应该在扩大进口规模的同时不断优化进口商品的结构。不同的部门要根据其资源禀赋和比较优势，采取不同的贸易和就业策略。
The paper makes an empirical study on the effects of manufacture product trade on employment in China based on 34-industry panel data from 1996-2006.We firstly estimate the whole employment effects of manufacture product trade,and then estimate the sectoral employment effects of manufacture product trade.From the result of the whole industry estimate,we find that export has a positive effect on employment,but import has a negative effect on employment.But from the result of sectoral estimate,we see that there are great industrial differences in the effects of export and import on employment.These findings have great implications for the trade and employment policies.In long run,it’s necessary to encourage industrial export to increase employment,but the role of it should not be overemphasized,and instead the employment effect of domestic demand needs to be emphasized.It’s unreasonable to limit industrial import because of its negative employment effect.We should expand industry import and optimize the structure of import goods.Different trade and employment policies should be adopted in different sectors in accordance with their comparative advantages.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期22-29,共8页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
