摘要
协整检验结果表明,尽管山东省地方财政收入和GDP都具有非平稳性,但其滞后一期变量是平稳的。就长期而言,二者之间具有统计上的高度相关性,存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型来看,短期内山东省财政收入与GDP之间存在动态调整机制,由于误差项的存在,可以自动地实现二者之间的长期均衡关系。根据Granger因果关系检验,在滞后3期以内,GDP和地方财政收入之间只存在单向的因果关系,GDP是地方财政收入的Granger原因,GDP增长是财政收入增长的决定因素。从长期来说,财政收入也是GDP的Granger原因,对GDP也起着决定作用。
Co-integration tests indicate that both the fiscal revenue and the GDP in Shandong are non - stationary but when lagged one period, both are stationary. In the long run, there exists high correlation and steady co-integration between them. In light of the error correction model, there exists a dynamic adjustment mechanism between the two, by which the error correction term automatically brings about their long term equilibrium. According to Granger causality test, provincial GDP Granger causes fiscal revenue when lagged one year, two years and three years, not vice versa. In the long run, however, fiscal revenue is also the Granger cause of GDP.
出处
《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期89-95,共7页
Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
山东省社会科学规划重点项目(06BJZ026)
关键词
地方财政收入
GDP
协整
误差修正模型
provincial fiscal revenue
GDP
co-integration
error correction model
