摘要
采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对硫化矿石堆的自燃进行预测。根据相同间隔时间的矿石温度,通过灰色计算得出下一个或以后几个时间段的温度,将预测的温度与已有试验数据进行比较;参照硫化矿的发火周期,预测几天后矿石堆的自热状态,从而指导工作人员采取相应的防、灭火措施。实例验证表明,GM(1,1)适用于硫化矿的自燃预测。本研究对矿山安全建设工作具有一定的参考价值。
The present article intends to introduce our method of Grey System Approach in application to predicting spontaneous combustion of mineral sulfide residue, which is actually one of the main sources leading to mining fires. As is often the case, such spontaneous combustions serve as the origin of catastrophes leading both to grave casualty and material losses. Superficially, such spontaneous combustions seemed to be irregular with no methods to be followed or measures to be taken to prevent, however, there do exist regularities or laws for tracing. To solve the problem of early prediction and prevention of such combustions, we have done due study with the grey system theory, that is, GM（ 1, 1 ） model, which proves fairly enough for the coal spontaneous combustion prediction and forecasting. The working mechanism seems easy to understand. Based on the few existing temperatures of the mineral residues, it is possible to predict the surrounding temperatures by means of calculation of the GM （1, 1 ） model. And, then, comparison and contrast can be made with the predicted temperatures with the former ones by referring to the regularities of combustion cycle. The above study also helps us to deduce what is the self-burning stage with the residue. For instance, this GM（1, 1） model suggested by us proves to be an effective method to overcome the past shortcomings, such as the fuzzy information, uncertainty data, the interference of human factors and so on. Thus, significant improvement has been achieved both in theory and practice by analyzing and projecting the data on temperatures of mining ore body scientifically. What＇s more, this model can be taken as a kind of reference in the mining safety and security construction.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第4期125-127,共3页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题资助项目(2006BAK04B03-02)
关键词
矿山安全
硫化矿堆
自燃
预测
GM(1
1)
mine safety
sulfur ore dump
spontaneous combustion
prediction
GM（ 1,1 ）
