摘要
政府管制对社会政治和经济具有重要的影响,大量的实证研究表明许多政府管制是无效的,有些甚至起到了负面的作用。本文针对世界经济一体化背景下我国粮食市场政府管制有效性问题,提出了国内外市场不存在长期均衡关系是政府市场管制有效性的前提的命题,并运用经济理论及计量经济学方法,以2003年3月至2007年9月国内外小麦市场每日及1993年6月至2007年3月国内外小麦现、期货月度数据实证证明。由此为政府实行管制前评估管制有效性提供一个判断的依据,避免类似"国储铜事件"等盲目的管制决策造成不必要的负面影响和损失。该方法也能被推广运用于其他大宗商品的政府管制领域,具有一定的普遍性及实际应用价值。
To evaluate how effective Chinese government regulation is on the domestic grain market under world economic integration, we conducted a series of tests. There included unity root test, VAR, GARCH model, variance decomposition, cointegration test, together with volatility analysis to test daily data of the domestic and foreign wheat market from January 2001 to September 2007 and test monthly data of spot and futures of domestic and foreign wheat from June 1993 to March 2007. The results reveal some interesting features unique to China＇s wheat market. In particular, This paper provides substantiates that the absence of long-term equilibrium between domestic and foreign market can be maintained is the premise for using effective government regulation. Therefore, a standard is necessary for judging the necessity of regulation so as to avoid the negative effects and harm caused by inadvertent government regulation.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第8期42-50,89,共10页
Economic Research Journal
基金
上海市高校人文社会科学重点研究基地上海对外贸易学院国际经济贸易研究所资助
上海市教委重点学科建设项目资助(J51201)
关键词
粮食市场
政府管制
协整
均衡
Grain Market
Government Regulation
Co-integration
Equilibrium
