摘要
对单一电能市场中的发电容量投资问题进行了动态模拟,证实:一方面,在理想条件下,市场可以缓和并不断削弱发电投资的周期性波动,使其最终趋于稳定;另一方面,即使发电机组的平均收益足以使投资者回收最优发电装机容量水平下的投资成本,但是电价的不稳定性和信息的不完善性也将导致发电投资出现周期波动,进而使得市场中频繁出现供应短缺,虽然采取适当的容量费用机制可以减少供应短缺情景的出现,但是却可能会引发过度投资,也难以消除发电投资的周期性波动。
The dynamic simulation of generation capacity investment in the energy-only market was conducted and shows that under ideal conditions, the market smoothes the fluctuation of investment and helps it develop into a stable growth. However, the simulation also shows that the generation investment would fluctuate due to price volatility and information imperfection even if the average revenue covers the investment cost of optimal installations, which results in frequent supply shortages in the market. Furthermore, suitable capacity payment mechanisms help reduce the possibility of sup- ply shortage, but may trigger over-investment in generation capacity and the fluctuation might still remain.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2008年第8期19-24,共6页
East China Electric Power
关键词
发电投资
动态模拟
单一能量市场
容量费用机制
generation investment
dynamic simulation
energy-only market
capacity payment mechanism
