摘要
运用灰色理论,经过样本数据处理及检验,构建了钻井成本灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型.采用残差V(k)判断其预测精确度,并根据某钻井公司的实例,计算了2000～2007年该公司某油田探井的总单位成本并进行了可信度检验.检验结果表明:该方法操作简单、预测精确度较高.最后,运用该方法预测未来几年某油田探井的总单位成本,并得出呈增长趋势的结论.
By processing the sampling data and proof-test,the paper used the gray theory to construct the drilling cost Gray GM(1,1)model.Using residual V(k)to judge the accuracy of their forecasts,and according to the example of a drilling company,the paper forecasts the total unit cost in exploration wells from 2000 to 2007 and make a reliability testing.The results show that the method is simple and has the higher precision.Meanwhile,using this method to predict the future total unit cost of the oilfield,a conclusion was reached that the cost showed a growing trend.
出处
《大庆石油学院学报》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第5期101-103,共3页
Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute
