摘要
近年来，气候变化成为全球关注的热点问题，气温和降水量的变化直接影响到我国的生态环境建设和经济发展。本文以新疆石河子气象局1961～2002年年均气温、最大冻土深度和降水量观测资料为研究对象，运用线性拟合方法、滑动平均方法、散点图法进行趋势和相关关系分析。结果表明：（1）自20世纪60年代后期以来，石河子年均气温呈上升趋势，最大冻土深度呈下降趋势。（2）石河子年降水量呈上升趋势，而每年的降水量主要集中在春季。（3）石河子春、夏、秋三季节随着温度升高降水量下降，冬季则相反。（4）用M—K法分析，得出历年温度和降水发生了突变及发生突变的时间。
In recent years, the global climate change became a hot issue, the change of temperature and precipitation affected the construction of the ecological environment and economic development of China directly. In this paper, the data of the average temperature, the largest depth of frozen soil and average precipitation, which gotten from Shihezi Meteorological Bureau during the period of 1961 -2002 were analyzed by linear fitting method, smooth average method and scatter plot method to get their trend and correlation. The resuhs showed that： （ 1 ） Since the late 1960s, the trend of average temperature increased, contrarily, the largest depth of frozen soil decreased. （2） The trend of average annual precipitation increased and the largest precipitation occurred in spring. （3） In spring, summer and autumn, the precipitation of Shihezi decreased while temperature increased, the result in winter was opposite. （4） According to M - K method , we knew the temperature and precipitation of Shihezi changed abruptly and got the time of abrupt change.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第11期50-54,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院西部之光项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划重点项目(XJEDU2005I07)
新疆大学博士启动基金项目(BS050108)
自治区绿洲生态重点实验室开放课题(XJDX0201-2007-03)资助
关键词
年均气温
最大冻土深度
年均降水量
突变
石河子
annual temperature
the largest depth of frozen soil
annual precipitation
abrupt change
Shihezi
