摘要
本文将利率对经济增长率的影响效应分解为两部分:一部分是由平均投资倾向加权的资本边际产出随利率变化所反映的投资效率效应;另一部分是由资本边际产出加权的平均投资倾向随利率变化所反映的投资规模效应。运用误差修正模型对这两种效应进行估计检验,实证表明,实际利率的投资规模效应几乎可以忽略,投资效率效应也非常低,上一年实际贷款利率对经济增长的影响效应很微小。因此,在中国利率政策还难以成为货币政策实施的主要手段,抑制通货膨胀还需依赖其他调控政策手段。
This article decomposes the impact of interest rate on the economy growth into two parts： one part is the effects of the investment efficiency reflected by the interest rate, and it is changed with the changes of marginal capital output, which is calculated by the weighed average tendency of investment; the other part is the effects of the investment scale which is reflected by the average tendency of the capital investment following the interest rate changes which calculated by the weighed capital marginal output. Using the error correction model to estimate the effects of the two parts, the evidence shows that the effect of the scale of the investment in real interest rate is negligible, as well as the effect of the investment efficiency. That is, the impact of the real loan rate last year on the economy growth is very small. Therefore, the interest rate policy can＇t be adopted as the main measure in China, and other policy instruments should be used to control inflation.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2008年第11期17-20,共4页
Financial Theory and Practice
基金
国家社科基金项目(批准号:07BJY169)的资助
预期
不确性与最优货币政策研究(批准号:06JA790068)部分成果之一
关键词
利率
经济增长
投资规模
投资效率
Interest Rate
Economy Growth
Investment Scale
Investment Efficiency
