摘要
根据大庆西部外围低渗透、特低渗透油田的开采动态,应用重标极差分析方法研究了油田产量递减的分形特征,计算了产量的Hurst指数,计算值均大于0.5,揭示了大庆西部外围低渗透油田产量变化趋势的持久性,表现出了隐藏于随机性之后的有序性,说明产量递减特性是可以延伸的。在此基础上,应用能解决随机干扰影响的基于残差的改进灰色模型和灰色等维新息递补预测法的组合,优化灰色模型拟合并预测了油田产量的递减变化,拟合的平均相对误差为1.82%,表明重标极差分析方法和组合优化灰色模型相结合是实现低渗透油田产量高精度预测的有效方法。
In view of producing characteristics of peripheral low and extra-low permeability oilfield of west Daqing,fractal characteristics of production decline were researched by R/S analysis method. The Hurst indexes of output were calculated with the values all larger than 0. 5. The tendency of output change of the peripheral low permeability oilfield of west Daqing was durable. The orderliness concealed behind the randomness was demonstrated,and it is proved that the production decline characteristic is extendable. The production decline change was matched and forecasted by-combined optimum grey model,which is composed of partial error optimum grey model (GM) as well as equal-dimension and new-information grey model. The model can overcome random disturbance,and the average relative matching error was 1.82%. The results indicate that the method of combining the R/S analysis with optimum grey model is an effective and high accuracy method for predicting output of low permeability oilfields.
出处
《油气地质与采收率》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期80-82,共3页
Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency
关键词
低渗透油田
产量递减
重标极差分析
分形特征
灰色系统
大庆油区
low permeability oilfield
production decline
R/S a-nalysis
fractal characteristics
grey system
Daqing petroliferous province
