摘要
通过对1997-2006年我国旅游服务贸易出口国际市场占有率指数、旅游服务贸易竞争优势指数和显示性比较优势指数的比较,可以看出我国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力尚不强。结合1978-2007我国历年入境旅游人次和外汇收入数据,通过建立时间序列模型,可以对未来五年我国入境旅游发展趋势进行预测。建议根据我国入境旅游消费结构特征,采用从宏观上实行差异化引导等策略。
Through the comparison of the international market share, CAI index and RCA index of the tourism service trade export of China from 1997 to 2006, we can get a inclusion that the international competition ability of China＇ s tourism service trade is not strong. We can forecast the five year inbound tourism trend in future by establishment time series model based on the data of inbound tourism people and foreign exchange earning each year of our country from 1978 to 2007.
出处
《江西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
2008年第6期81-84,共4页
Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
南开大学文科创新基金"我国旅游产业潜力和竞争力研究"(nkc0606)
关键词
入境旅游
服务贸易
外汇收入
旅游市场
Inbound Tourism
Service Trade
Foreign Exchange Earnings
Tour Market
