摘要
叶绿素-a是湖泊浮游植物现存量的重要指标,其含量能反映水中浮游植物的丰度和变化规律。研究叶绿素含量的动态变化,可以有效防止、监控湖泊富营养化的发生。以太湖为研究对象,根据其营养水平进行分区,使得不同区域内叶绿素的浓度不同,而同一区域内浓度大体一致,然后利用地理信息系统技术对每个区域内未采样点的叶绿素浓度进行插值,取区域内所有栅格的平均值作为其最终浓度。应用时间序列分析方法对太湖1998—2004年每月的叶绿素含量进行动态模拟,建立各湖区的预测模型。结果表明,中营养区Ⅰ符合MA(1)模型,轻富营养区Ⅱ和中富营养区Ⅲ符合AR(1)模型,富营养区Ⅳ符合MA(5)模型,重富营养区Ⅴ符合AR(6)模型。由此预测出2005年各湖区总叶绿素的含量,经前10个月实测数据的验证说明,所建模型在一定程度上能反映太湖各区域叶绿素浓度的变化。
Chlorophyll-α concentration is an important index to phytoplankton biomass in lake, showing the abundance and distribution of phytoplankton in lake water, and reflecting the change in lacustrine chlorophyll-α content, which may help indicate the state of eutrophication. Lake water was sampled with chlorophyll-α concentration measured or interpo-lated lake-wise in grid pattern using GIS （geographic information system） technique. In terms of chlorophyll-α concentration as well as nutrition level, Taihu Lake was divided into five divisions from mesotrophic to hypertrophic state. The historical data of observational chlorophyll-α content were simulated in month from 1998 to 2004 in time series. Processes including data pretreatment, parameterization and presumption test were carried out for simulating raw data for model establishment and validation. For each division, different models are built up capable of simulating chlorophyll-α content in 2005. The results show that these models are able to well-describe the temporal and spatial changes in trophism of the lake.
出处
《海洋与湖沼》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期591-598,共8页
Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目,40571110和40801145号
江苏省高等学校研究生创新计划资助项目,06-30号
