摘要
灌溉用水量系统受诸多不确定性因素的影响,采用灰色预测方法对甘肃省灌溉用水量进行建模分析。通过对灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度的分析表明,GM(1,1)预测公式系数的选取存在缺陷。因此基于残差和为零准则,就预测公式系数C的选取问题提出新的计算方法,并对系数修正前后的模型分别建模。结果表明:改进灰色模型预测灌溉用水量与实际用水量更接近、精度更高。
The irrigation water consumption is affected by a lot of uncertain factors. In this paper, grey-forecasting model is adopted to predicate the irrigation water consumption of Gansu province. The results of analysis of the precision and adaptability of the grey GM（1, 1） model indicate that there is bug in the choice of coefficient of prediction formula. Based on the principle that the total of errors equals to zero, a new calculation method is proposed for this problem. Then the new method is further extended according to the criteria of absolute errors under ideal situation. At last, the irrigation water consumption model of Gansu province is built by ap- plying this method. The results show that the irrigation water consumption value predicted by improving grey-forecasting model is more close to the actual water quantities and has higher accuracy.
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2008年第12期49-50,56,共3页
Water Saving Irrigation
关键词
灰色预测模型
系数
预测精度
灌溉用水量
grey model
coefficient
prediction precision
irrigation water consumption
