摘要
从社会经济系统、生态环境系统和水资源系统3个层次16个指标用人工神经网络对郑州市水资源可持续利用状况进行综合评价。结果表明:1994-2005年,郑州市水资源可持续利用评价结果分别为0.43、0.39、0.42、0.41、0.48、0.5、0.55、0.65、0.59、0.63,整体上呈较快上升趋势,但其仍然处在可持续利用困难到基本可持续利用阶段;未来规划水平年(2010、2015、2020年)水资源可持续评价结果分别为0.68、0.72、0.75,均处于可持续发展阶段。通过敏感性分析得出影响郑州市水资源可持续利用的敏感性要素为:水资源开发利用率、单方水粮食产量、平均灌溉水利用系数。提高水资源开发利用率、单方水粮食产量、平均灌溉水利用系数、人均GDP、中水回用率是改善郑州市城市水资源可持续利用状况的重要举措。
By using BP model of ANN, sustainable utilization of water resources in Zhengzhou City is comprehensivly evaluated based on 16 indicators at 3 levels such as the socio-economie system, the eeo-environraental system and the water resources system. The re- suits show that from 1994 to 2005, Zhengzhou＇s comprehensive indices of sustainable utilization of water resources were 0. 43,0. 39, 0. 42,0. 41,0. 48,0. 5,0. 55,0. 65,0. 59 and 0. 63 respectively. The average level of sustainable utilization of water resources in Zhengzhou is on the rise, but is still in difficulties. The calculation by using the model shows that the comprehensive indices of sustainable utilization of water resources in future planning years （2010, 2015, 2020） are 0. 68,0. 72 and 0. 75. According to the sensitivity analysis, we can conclude that the sensitive factors that affect sustainable utilization of water resources are the utilization rate of water resources , the grain production from each cubic meter of water consumption, the efficiency of using irrigation water. Increasing water resources utilization rate, the grain production from each cubic meter of water consumption, the average water use efficiency of irrigation water , gross domestic product per capita and effluent waste water quality are important measures to improve sustainable utilization of water resources in Zhengzhou.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2008年第12期55-58,62,共5页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
河南省科技攻关重点项目(000291)
华北水利水电学院高层人才科研启动项目
关键词
城市水资源
可持续利用
指标体系
BP
郑州市
city water resources
sustainable utilization
index system
BP
Zhengzhou City
