摘要
首先建立了线性回归模型、曲线拟合模型、指数函数模型、时间序列模型、灰色系统模型5个单一模型,就2001-2004年的人口数分别对这5个模型的预测结果进行了比较;然后考虑将这5种模型用5种组合方法组成新的组合模型来预测人口总数;最后对我国2005-2015年的人口总数进行了预测,预测结果为我国2015年人口总数为14.30亿。
This article first establishes five sole models of linear regression model, curve fitting model, exponential function model, time series model and gray system model and compares the prediction results of these five models separately on the numbers of people of 2001-2004 years. Then it considers composing these five kinds of models with five combinations methods and using the new combination model to forecast the total population. Finally it forecasts China＇s total population from 2005-2015, and the forecast result is 1.43 billion in 2015.
出处
《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2009年第1期75-79,共5页
Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)
关键词
人口预测
组合预测
权重
population forecast
combination forecast
weight
