摘要
针对农业建设项目普遍采用的敏感性分析和决策树分析方法存在假设各风险因素相互独立、风险因素取值主观臆断和取值范围不完整的弊病,该文引进条件概率量化了风险因素间的关联性;通过计算财务净现值(NPV)的离散值并生成其连续型概率分布函数,据此计算风险发生概率。理论推导和案例计算结果表明,这种改进方法更加符合实际且简便易行,可有效避免现有方法的不足,减少风险因素取值误差,提高风险指标估算精度。还能为非农业项目风险分析提供参考,为项目投资者和管理部门提供更为科学的决策依据。
The present methods for risk analysis,such as sensibility analysis and＂decision tree＂analysis,have the following disadvantages such as assumption of factor independence,subjective factors in value taking and incomplete range of factor value.A new approach to risk analysis was studied with the introduction of conditional probability to correlate the risk factors.A probability distribution function derived by calculating a series of net present values of the project was used to decide the probability of risk.As a result,the theory and case study show that the improved method for risk analysis can effectively characterize the interactive relationship between risk factors,and can also achieve a better estimation of project risk.The method can offer preference for the risk analysis of non-agricultural projects and provide decision-making basis for investors and administrators.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第12期297-301,共5页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
关键词
投资
项目管理
条件概率
风险分析
investment,project management,conditional probability,risk analysis
