摘要
本文应用灰色系统理论与方法，对山东省曹县1965～1986年第二代棉铃虫卵发生量构成的离散数列进行数据处理，用微分方程进行拟合，建立了第二代棉铃虫灰色系统GMI，l）长期灾变预测模型：X（’）（t）＝989773ie’“‘””（’－）－8997731并应用该模型对1987～1992年进行预测，结果与实况相吻合。
Grey-system theory and method were used in this paper. After the discrete dare composed by 100-plant egg amount of the second generation of Heliothis armigera (Hubner) in Caoxian Shandong province during the years of 1965-1989 were processed and simulated with differential equation, a long-term prediction model GK(1, 1) of grey catastrophe was set up as x(1) (t) = 98.9773le0.127005(t-1) - 89.97731The forecasted results for 1990-1993 are completely coincided with the actual occurrence of the pest in each year.
出处
《昆虫知识》
CSCD
1998年第3期136-139,共4页
Entomological Knowledge
关键词
第二代
棉铃虫
灰色系统
灾变性
预测模型
the second generation Heliothis armigera (H■bner) grey system catastrophe prediction model
