摘要
针对目前我国财务预警研究中存在的不足,本文以研究过程中是采用中报数据还是年报数据为依据,将上市公司财务预警分为短期和长期,并采用Logistic结合逐步回归的分析方法进行研究。在短期预警研究中,通过对基于一季度报和半年报的比较研究得出基于前者所建模型更具时效性;在长期预警研究中,通过引入企业增长率偏离程度进行实证研究后得出,要构建有效的长期预警模型应更多地考虑对企业具有重要经济意义的非财务指标。
Considering the deficiencies in the recent researches on financial crisis prediction, firstly, financial crisis prediction of listed companies was divided into short - term financial crisis prediction and long - term financial crisis prediction by using the data of semi - annual financial reports or annual financial reports in the research process, and then using the method of logistic model combining with step by step regression analysis, the prediction was researched. In short - term study of financial crisis prediction, the model built by the data from the first quarter financial reports will be more timely and effective than that from semi - annual financial reports through comparative researching. In long - term study of financial crisis prediction, in order to build an effective long - term financial crisis prediction model , non - financial indicators which have important economics meaning should be considered according to the results of empirical research after introducing the indicators that reflect actual growth deviation extent from sustainable growth.
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第1期45-55,64,共12页
Science Research Management
关键词
财务预警
短期
长期
SGR模型
financial crisis prediction
short - term
long - term
SGR model
