摘要
据１９５１～１９９４年的年降水量资料，用ＡＲ（ｐ）模型预测全省１７个代表站１９９５～２０００年的年降水量，并用综合法得出相应的旱涝等级．指出ＡＲ（ｐ）模型作未来２～３年年降水量预报是可行的，效果较好，综合法划分旱涝等级符合实际．
On precipitation data of 1951～1994,using AR(p) self-regression model predicated annual precipitation of 17 stations in Yunnan and using synthetic method rated drough or flood.The results presented the AR(p) model was good to predicate annual precipitation of future 2～3 years and the synthetic method was pratical to rate drough or flood.
出处
《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1998年第1期59-63,共5页
Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)
基金
云南省八.五灾害性预测预报攻关项目
关键词
自回归模型
综合法
降水预报
旱涝等级
self-regression model,synthetic method,precipitation prediction,the rating of drough or flood
