摘要
对城镇生活用水量以及废水和污染物排放量进行科学预测,对于合理开发水资源以及制定城镇废水治理规划和治理政策具有积极的指导意义。本文在系统研究国内外关于水资源需求以及废水和污染物排放量研究概况和常用预测方法的基础上,针对城镇生活用水需求以及生活废水和主要污染物排放,建立了一套宏观城镇生活用水、废水和污染物排放量以及治理费用的预测模型,预测分析了2007年～2020年期间的城镇生活用水和废水排放趋势和投资需求以及减排工作重点。本项研究是综合社会经济发展与环境预测预警平台的重要组成部分,将为宏观环境形势分析和确定减排工作重点提供有力的技术支撑。预测结果表明,到2020年城镇生活用水量将达到约670×10~8m^3,城镇生活废水排放量为(580～595)×10~8t之间,COD和氨氮排放量将分别界于(730～870)×10~4t和(90～105)×10~4t之间;预测同时表明,"十一五"期间规划城镇生活废水新增处理能力与预测应新增处理能力之间的差距大约为(300～1000)×10~4m^3/天,污染减排目标实现难度大。
Scientific predictions of future urban household water consumption and wastewater and pollutant discharge have great significance for the rational exploitation of water resources and planning for disposal of municipal wastewater and associated policy formulation. Based on a systematic study of foreign and domestic research on water resource demands and pollutant discharge as well as conventional prediction methods, this paper establishes a set of macroscopic prediction models for urban household water demand, wastewater and major pollutant discharge as well as operation expenses, and predicts and analyzes the future trends of urban household water consumption, wastewater discharge, investment demand and working emphasis of pollution reduction. The study is an important component of the Prediction and Warning Platform for Integrated Social-Economic Development and Environment System and will be a strong technical basis for analysis of macro-environmental trends and identification of pollution reduction emphasis. The target prediction period is from 2007 to 2020 and calculation is based on two kinds of geographical units： city and town. We first predict the per-capita urban water consumption in the prediction period, then derive the future total urban water consumption based on population growth rate and urbanization rate. Urban water consumption multiplied by the average water use rate of urban households equals wastewater production. Urban pollutant production is the product of urban population and per capita pollutant production. Wastewater and pollutant discharge and corresponding investment and operation expenditures for pollution control can be calculated with the established disposal and abatement targets. Prediction shows that water consumption and wastewater production will increase greatly with the growth of urban population and per capita water consumption in the next five to fifteen years, and centralized urban waste water pollution will be a great threat to Chinese environmental safety in the future. The study finds that the most critical task for reducing urban wastewater pollution is to improve the collection and disposal coverage of households in towns, where the collection and disposal rate is relatively low compared to big cities.The detailed prediction indicates that by 2020, urban household water consumption will total around 67 billion cubic meters, urban household wastewater discharge will be 58-59.5 billion tons and discharge of COD and ammoniac nitrogen will be 7.3-8.7 million tons and 0.9- 1.05 million tons respectively. The prediction also suggests that in the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, the gap between the planned new treatment capability of urban household wastewater and the predicted new treatment capability is about （3-10）million m3/d and it will be very difficult to achieve the target of pollution reduction.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期75-83,共9页
Resources Science
基金
环境保护部与中国工程院中国环境宏观战略研究项目。
