摘要
给出人造台风(即Bogus)资料同化方案,并用于生成台风的初始结构,同时用9608号台风进行了测试,资料同化和预报均采用第5代中尺度模式系统(The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model,简称MM5),结果发现该方案能产生成熟台风的许多结构特征,对9608号台风的预报也有明显改进。模式的初始场更适合于预报模式,能有效抑制积分初期的旋转加强(即Spinup)现象;强度预报和路径预报都得到改善,Bogus资料同化方案的各时次路径预报误差均比Bogus资料直接嵌入方案的误差要小。
A Bogus data assimilation scheme （BDA）is presented and used to form the initial structure of a typhoon. Then an experiment for No. 9608 typhoon is conducted. A mesoscale model （The 5th generation NACA/Pennsyvania State University Mesoscale Model, MM5 for short） is used for both the data assimilation and the prediction. It is found that the scheme is able to recover many of the structural features of a mature typhoon. Obvious improvements are achieved in the prediction of the No. 9608 typhoon. First of all, the initial fields of the model variables are well adapted to the forecast model. The spinup phenomehum at the initial time for the model integration can be restrained efficiently. Secondly, the typhoon intensity and track forecast are greatly improved. The errors in the track forecasted at the regular intervals by use of BDA become smaller than those without BDA.
出处
《海洋科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期81-91,共11页
Advances in Marine Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目--散射计资料的海面风场反演及其四维变分同化研究(40505024)
中国博士后科学基金项目--台风双眼壁结构形成机理的研究(20060400021)
关键词
台风
变分同化
BOGUS
typhoon
variational assimilation
Bogus
