摘要
动量轮具有小子样、高可靠性、长寿命等特点,其寿命和可靠性评估通常采用Bayes小子样评估方法。而在Bayes评估中往往忽略了多源验前信息之间的差异,这可能会导致评估结果与工程实际不相符。如何合理的对验前信息的差异进行定量分析是航天科技人员在可靠性评估中的一个难题。针对这一问题,从验前信息熵的角度出发提出了一种新的可信度概念,利用不同验前信息的可信度来定量刻画信息间的差异。实例分析表明,这种新的可信度概念能有效的刻画验前信息的差异程度,基于可信度的可靠性评估精度更高、更符合工程实际。
The Bayesian method is often used in the life and reliability estimation of Momentum Wheel because of its characteristic such as small sample, high reliability and long life. But there is no regard about the difference of the various source prior information, it may lead that the results of the estimation do not agree with the practice. How to perform the quantitative analysis about the difference of the prior information reasonably is a big puzzled problem in the reliability field. Aiming at this problem, this paper put forward a new concept of credibility from the entropy of the prior information, and uses the credibility of different prior information to quantitatively measure the difference of the information. The practical analysis proves that the credibility can reflect the difference of prior information, and the method of the reliability estimation based on credibility is effective and more according with the practice.
出处
《宇航学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期382-386,共5页
Journal of Astronautics
基金
国家自然科学基金<基于失效物理的小子样长寿命产品寿命预测理论>(60701006)
关键词
贝叶斯方法
验前信息
可信度
动量轮
Bayesian method
Prior information
Credibility
Momentum Wheel
