摘要
科学评价海洋经济可持续发展能力是准确把握海洋经济开发水平的重要保证,复合生态系统的场力理论为可持续发展能力评价提供了一种新的思路。从海洋经济可持续发展能力的概念模型出发,尝试运用复合生态系统场力分析框架,提出用于海洋经济可持续发展能力评价的综合评价指数—海洋经济可持续发展度,选取可行的量化方法,以辽宁省为实例,对海洋经济可持续发展能力的演进特征及其原因进行了分析。结果表明,辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展能力正处于上升势头,其系统协调程度也在逐渐增强,与该省的实际情况较为一致,说明辽宁在转变海洋经济发展方式、加强海洋资源环境保护以及提高海洋经济质量等方面成效明显。结果还表明,海洋经济可持续发展度与可持续协调度有很强的正相关性,这说明加强海洋经济与生态环境以及社会发展之间的协调,仍是确保实现海洋经济可持续发展的重要内容。
The assessment of sustainable development capability is an important task during the research of sustainable development, which focuses on the two aspects： method to assess and assessing indexes system. According to the theory of field force in social-economic-natural complex ecosystem, some key concepts were defined in assessing the sustainable development capability of marine economy. They are development location of marine economy （L）, development potential of marine economy （P）, and harmonious degree of sustainable development of marine economy （H）. Therefore, the degree of sustainable development of marine economy （D） can be defined as the function of L, P and H, and D can be estimated through geometric average of L, P and H. This method is applied to assess the sustainable development capability of marine economy in Liaoning Province. Twenty-one basic indicators are determined at first： parts of their upper limits are the planning values in 2010 and lower limit are the values in 1996, while the rest are decided through discussed. The assessment results are as follows： The fact of general increase in the degree of sustainable development of marine economy shows that the sustainable development capability of marine economy in Liaoning Province has been improved in the last nine years. There existed one obvious fluctuation in 1999, which was the consequence of marine natural disasters. From 2000, the trend of the sustainable development capability of marine economy has increased smoothly. Through further analysis, it can be found that there is obviously a positive correlation between D and H. It shows that the strategy to ensure the harmony of marine economy, resource-environment and social is very important to sustainable development of marine economy. By comparing the variations of average output of marine industry, development location of marine economic and harmonious degree of sustainable development of marine economy, it can also be easily found that the degree of sustainable development of marine economy is the best indicator for assessing the sustainable development capability of marine economy.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期288-294,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40671052)
辽宁省人文社科重点研究基地项目(编号:20060460)。
关键词
海洋经济
可持续发展能力
评价
辽宁省
Marine economy
Sustainable development capability
Assessment
Liaoning province
