摘要
该文根据历史数据分析,指出中国经济大概滞后美国经济9个月的时间,认为随着外围经济的持续疲软,2009年中国经济面临下行风险,经济增长的动力主要来源于政府带动的投资,预计经济增速将保持在7%以上的水平,但货币及财政政策并不具有持久作用。同时,文章预计2009年利率还有81BP～108BP的下降空间,存款准备金还会有3～4个百分点的下移空间;认为2009年将是经济的"U型"筑底期,下半年或2010年上半年各项经济数据有望在低谷企稳。
Based on historical data, this paper points out that there is a time lag of nine months between the economies of China and the United States. Given the downward trend in external economies, China＇s economic growth will slow down in 2009, mainly driven by government-led investment. The growth rate is expected to be above 7%, but monetary and fiscal policies won＇t have a lasting effect. Furthermore, the author anticipates a rate-cut range of 81-108BP on interests and 3-4 percentage points on required reserve ratio in 2009. The author also holds that the economy will consolidate the bottom of a U-shaped trend in 2009, and economic data will stabilize at the bottom in H2 2009 or H1 2010.
出处
《中国货币市场》
2009年第2期20-24,共5页
China Money
关键词
经济走势
债券市场
货币政策
财政政策
economic trend, bond market, monetary policy, fiscal policy
