摘要
本文通过构建"基准深度比"这一新方法,对相关国家和经济集团的保险业增长水平进行重新评估和比较,并在此基础上讨论其政策启示。主要结论是:第一,我们需要对国际保险业增长格局有一个新的认识:发达市场的保险业相对增长水平较传统指标有所降低,发展中市场的保险业相对增长水平较传统指标有所提升;发达市场的保险业相对增长水平仍高于发展中市场,但新兴市场和"金砖四国"的增长态势十分强劲,并已达到较高水平。第二,保险公司的全球战略布局,一方面要继续巩固发达市场,另一方面要积极开拓发展中市场,同时需要特别注意新兴市场和"金砖四国"的保险业相对增长已经达到较高水平,未来增长潜力虽仍然很大,但将主要依靠经济增长的常规拉动,保险业增长模式将发生很大变化。第三,发展中国家保险产业政策的重点不应是强调量上的增长,而应是强调增长方式的调整和提升,以便为未来长远阶段的保险业持续增长奠定坚实的基础。第四,传统分析范式存在局限,亟需构建更加完善的保险业国际比较的新范式,以使国际保险监管合作和相关国际贸易谈判具备一个更加合理的对话基础。
This paper made a comparison of the growth of the insurance industry in some countries and regions through establishing a new method of ＂benchmark penetration ratio＂ and made relevant policy suggestions on the basis of the comparison results. The paper drew some important conclusions from the analysis. Firstly, we need to have a new concept on the growth scenario of the international insurance industry ： the relative growth level in developed markets decreased somewhat in comparison to traditional parameters, while the relative growth level in developing markets increased to some extent; the growth in developed markets was still faster than developing markets, but emerging markets and BRICs showed very strong growth momentum and had reached a fairly high level. Secondly, insurers keen on international expansion strategy should, on the one hand, continue to strengthen their position in developed markets, and on the other hand, proactively expand their market share in developing market. At the same time, it should be especially noted that emerging markets and BRICs have seen their insurance industry grow strongly, and the potential for further growth was still large. But their future growth will mainly be driven by their economic growth in the future, therefore their modes of insurance growth would experience dramatic change. Thirdly, the focus for developing countries should not be on growth of the volume of insurance business, but should emphasize readjustment and modulation of modes of growth, so as to lay down a solid foundation for long-term development of the insurance industry. Fourthly, traditional methods of analysis on insurance business growth had their limitation. We need to establish a new model for international comparison so that cooperation among international insurance regulators and trade negotiations will be conducted on a more reasonable basis.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第1期33-41,共9页
Insurance Studies
关键词
保险业
增长水平
国际比较
the insurance industry
level of growth
international comparison
