摘要
矿业权开发投资涉及多阶段决策,而且矿产品价格剧烈波动,不确定性极高。传统的净现值法易低估矿业投资项目的价值,往往导致对项目的误评。文中引入实物期权理论,在介绍其概念、优势及其在矿业投资中应用框架的基础上,结合华东局实例讨论了在不确定性条件下矿山推迟建设开采带来的投资机会价值,为矿业投资项目的投资决策提供一种更贴近实际情况的科学方法,提醒管理者关注并利用不确定性因素来获得更大的收益。
Involved in multi-stage decision-making and severe fluctuations in mineral prices, mining investment is highly uncertain, and the traditional net present value method is easy to underestimate the value of mining investment projects, leading to the mistaken assessments. So, real options theory is introduced in this paper. Introducing its concept.advantages and application framework in mining investment, and taking Eastern China Geological ＆ Mining Organization as an example, this paper discusses the value of investment which postponed mining under the uncertain conditions. This paper offers a scientific way closing to the actual situation for managers, and reminds managers of caring for the use of the uncertainties to get more revenue.
出处
《价值工程》
2009年第3期57-60,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学研究资助项目"支持内部创业的企业战略更新理论与实践研究"(07SJD630004)
华东南资源经济研究院2008年重点研究项目"华东局矿权开发投资项目经济评价体系研究"(2008-04)
关键词
实物期权
矿业权评估
净现值法
real options
mining rights assessment
net present value method
