摘要
采用高斯烟团模型模拟有毒化学品泄漏后的扩散区域,确定应急疏散范围;采用线性规划方法,建立应急疏散优化模型,并利用Lingo优化软件求解该模型。以液氯泄漏事故为例,研究危险区域的人员疏散,确定最佳应急疏散方案。本研究为一线指挥人员的最优疏散方案决策提供了参考。
The present paper is aimed at introducing its author＇s improved model of emergency evacuation decision-making.in case of toxic chemicals＇ leakage. So far as we know, with the increase of the production and application of different types and amounts of toxic chemicals, accidents involving toxic chemicals leakage also tend to rise enormously, particularly, the leakages with heavy and extraordinarily serious toxic chemicals. When such leakages occur, emergency evacuation is needed in order to avoid and reduce human casualty and material loss. Therefore, it has become a serious problem on how for the vantage front commanding officers to promptly define the emergency evacuation region and number of people to be evacuated so as to reduce the cost of the evacuation at the lowest cost to solve the problem, it is necessary to do the following things. First of all, to simulate the leakage diffusion region according to the damage size by using the Gaussian Plume Model proposed in this paper. If the wind direction is stable, the evacuation region can be confirmed on the border of the PC50 isoconcentration line. On the contrary, if it is unstable, the evacuation region should be defined on the border of the circular area to be chosen around the leakage point center in the greatest distance of the PC50 isoconcentration line in the wind direction to a radius of the circular ,area. Secondly, it is necessary to define the emergency evacuation distance by introducing the danger coefficient and evacuation equivalent length. Thirdly, by means of a linear programming, the major factors influencing decision-making including evacuation quantity of the evacuation site, the carrying capacity of the refuge and evacuation equivalent length and interrelations can be generalized as the linear programming model. And, finally, the model can be solved by Lingo Optimization Software accordingly. The optimized evacuation scheme should be set to achieve the best position and the shortest evacuation distance for the people to be evacuated. Taking liquid chlorine leakage for a case study, we have gained desirable results. The case study shows that the model can provide not only a reasonable basis for the accident spot commanders to define the evacuation region rapidly and accurately, but also enable them to get optimized schemes.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期123-126,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
