摘要
针对配电网可靠性的特点,在充分考虑可靠性指标的历史变化趋势和顾及各种相关因素对可靠性指标的影响的情况下,分别建立了基于历史统计数据的横向预测模型和考虑相关因素影响的纵向预测模型,形成了灰色组合预测模型,充分发挥了灰色预测模型所需样本小、精确度高的优点。对某地区配电网可靠性统计数据的实例分析,证明了该方法的有效性。
In view of the characteristics of distribution system reliability, considering the historical trend of reliability index and the effect of each correlative factor, the transverse and lengthways forecast models were constructed in this paper. The grey model for the advantages of high accuracy and small samples was built. This paper presented a new practical method for improving the planning and design, operation and maintenance of distribution system. It was proved to be validity through an reliability example of statistical data analysis in the distribution system of one certain area.
出处
《电力科学与工程》
2009年第3期18-21,共4页
Electric Power Science and Engineering
关键词
配电网
可靠性
预测
相关因素
distribution system
reliability
forecast
correlative factor
