摘要
基于老采空区上方地表实际监测沉降数据，提出了利用混沌理论相空间重构及预测技术研究老采空区地表沉陷特征及时变规律的新思路.研究了沉陷系统的相空间重构、关联维数的确定、Lyapunov指数的计算和预测模型的构建及应用等问题.采用最大Lyapunov指数法及混沌最小二乘支持向量机法对老采空区地表沉陷量进行了建模和预测.结果表明：该沉陷系统是一个混沌系统，沉陷影响因素有3~6个，变形理论最大预测期数为18期.构建的混沌预测模型预测结果相对误差均控制在10%以内，预测精度良好，可为老采空区废弃土地再利用决策提供支持.
A new idea was put forward for chaotic characteristics and time-variable law of surface subsidence of goal by means of space reconstruction and prediction methods of chaotic. Problems of space reconstruction of surface subsidence value, correlation dimension determina- tion, Lyapunov exponent calculation, establishment chaotic prediction model and application of model were discussed. Maximum of Lyapunov exponent and LLSVM methods were used for modeling and predicting the goal subsidence. The result of the simulation experiment shows that the deformation system is a chaotic system, and there are about 3 to 6 influencing factors. The result also shows that the maximum time of the deformation is 18 in theory. The relative error of the prediction result of the prediction model is controlled within 10 percent. The prediction accaracy is perfect. The research can offer help for the policy-making of the reclamation of the soil in goal.
出处
《中国矿业大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期170-174,共5页
Journal of China University of Mining & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40774010)
地理空间信息工程国家测绘局重点实验室开放基金(200709)
关键词
老采空区
地表沉陷
混沌
相空间重构
预测模型
时变规律
goal
surface subsidence
chaotic
space reconstruction
prediction model
time variable law
