摘要
运用协整理论与误差修正模型,本文对我国1985-2006年的服务业经济、服务贸易出口与进口的数据进行了协整分析,并建立了反映短期波动与长期均衡的VECM模型。实证结果表明:我国服务业经济与服务贸易出口、进口之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系;服务贸易出口始终是服务业经济增长的Granger原因,但服务业经济增长始终不是服务贸易进口的Granger原因;VECM模型显示,从短期来看,三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快,且服务贸易进口的短期波动对我国服务业经济短期变化的影响更为显著。最后,本文给出了我国服务贸易与服务业经济协同发展的路径,以期改善我国服务贸易的逆差状况,并最终提升我国服务贸易的国际竞争力。
In accordance with the theory of cointegration and the error correction model, this paper measures the relationship between China service economy and service trade import and export based on the data from 1985 to 2006, and establishes the VECM model which reflects the long-term equilibrium and the short-term fluctuations. The result shows that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among the three. The export of the service trade has always been a Granger reason to service economy, but service economy has always not been a Granger reason to the import of the service trade. VECM model shows that in the short-run, the speed of the correction is very quick from the short fluctuation to long-term equilibrium, and the effect of the import fluctuation on service economy fluctuation is more significant. Finally, a path of the joint development between service trade and service economy is given, which may be helpful to improve China＇s service trade deficit situation and ultimately enhance China＇s competitiveness in the international trade in services.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期53-60,共8页
Journal of International Trade
基金
中国博士后基金《基于组织学习协同的企业跨国经营战略绩效管理》(项目编号:20060390840)
