摘要
将我国主要贸易伙伴按贸易方式、商品结构及地理距离分成三组,分别使用平行数据的截面SUR方法对各组与我国出口额、进口额和上年FDI、截至上年的累积FDI及当年GDP总和进行回归分析,发现短期内,第一组FDI对国际贸易起互补效应,第二组起替代效应,第三组效应不明显。在长期,三组数据的累积FDI对国际贸易均有显著促进效应。
This paper firstly divides China＇s major trading partners into three groups according to their way of trade, commodity structure and geographical distance, then conducts a regression analysis of each group with such data as China＇s exports, imports, FDI of the previous year, the accumulated FDI by the last year and the total sum of GDP of that year by adopting the SUR section method with the parallel data. It is found that in the short term, the FDI of the first group has a complementarity effect on international trade; the FDI of the second group has a substitution effect; the effect of the third group is not obvious. In a long term, the accumulated FDI of the data of all the three groups has a significant promoting effect on international trade.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期102-107,共6页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
关键词
互补效应
替代效应
平行数据模型
截面SUR方法
complementarity effect
substitution effect
parallel data model
SUR section method
