摘要
深基坑工程具有投资规模大、不确定性因素多、施工技术复杂、社会影响大等特点。这些特点决定了其施工期存在较多经济技术风险。因为风险具有客观性、必然性、多样性、动态性、模糊性等特点,风险很难用一个准确的值来确定,用模糊隶属函数曲线确定一个范围可以合理有效地描述深基坑施工期的风险。首先,专家根据制定的事故概率等级和损失等级对事故的概率和损失进行估值;然后,根据工程的复杂性、所调研专家水平的差异等来确定专家对估计值的确信程度,根据确信程度选择合适的隶属函数曲线,再由隶属函数曲线确定风险的范围;最后,将该范围与制定的风险接受准则相比较,确定基坑的风险等级。针对一个深基坑工程进行风险评估,得出了该基坑的风险等级。
Deep excavation engineering is characterized by vast construction investment, many unpredictable factors, complex construction technology and great society influence. Therefore high risks would be induced in the deep excavation engineering such as economic and technological risks during construction. It is difficult to determine the risks with a precise value because they are objective, inevitable, various in kind, dynamic and fuzzy. A methodology of giving a range using the fuzzy membership function can describe the risks rationally and effectively. Firstly, experts give estimated values for the probability and loss of deep excavation accidents according to probability and loss rank. Secondly, the assurance degree of the estimated values is determined according to the complexity of work, the skill of experts etc, and the proper fuzzy membership function is chosen according to the assurance degree. Thirdly, the risk range is determined based on the fuzzy membership function. Finally, compared with the risk range and acceptance criteria of risk, the risk rank of an excavation can be obtained. By use of the risk assessment methodology, the risk rank of a given deep excavation is obtained.
出处
《岩土工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期648-652,共5页
Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
关键词
地铁车站
深基坑
风险评估
接受准则
模糊隶属函数
工程实例
metro station
deep excavation
risk assessment
acceptance criteria
fuzzy membership function
case study
