摘要
利用兰州市及其郊区(永登、榆中、皋兰3县)1958—2004年气象观测资料分析了兰州市热岛强度的年变化规律,结果表明,1975年以后,兰州市城市热岛效应呈上升趋势,但热岛强度整体保持在3.0℃以下;1981—1998年平均热岛强度为3.30℃,1990年以后城郊热岛强度增加到3.6℃以上;1996年达到最高为4.25℃;根据兰州市社会发展状况及前人的研究结果,分别分析了兰州市城市热岛强度在1971—1980年、1990—1995年和1997—2003年3个时段的季节变化规律,未来兰州夏季热岛效应将会排在第一位。运用灰色关联度分析法对影响兰州市城市热岛效应的因子群进行了贡献测度分析,结果表明,人为热释放是造成兰州市城市热岛效应的关键因素;风速、总云量是影响兰州市城市热岛效应的主要气象因子。最后通过改进GM(1,1)模型的拟合与预测,结果与实际情况具有良好一致性,表明兰州市城市热岛效应有进一步加重的趋势。
The meteorological observation data of the Lanzhou city and the suburbs （Yongdeng, Yuzhong and Gaolan） from 1958 to 2004 were used to analyze the annual change of heat island intensity of the Lanzhou city. It was disclosed that the heat island intensity changed with a increasing trend since 1975, but generally within 3.0℃. The average value increased to 3.30℃ during 1981 1998 and to over 3.6℃ since 1990, got the highest of 4.25℃ in 1996. The seasonal variation of the heat island intensity was also analyzed based on the survey of the social development situation and the former researches. The method of grey correlativity analysis was used to measure the contribution to the city heat island effect of influencing factors. As results, the factor of artificial thermal release is the key, factors of wind speed and cloud mass are the main meteorological causes. The simulating result of a improved GM（1,1） model has showed a good consistence between the simulated value and the actual measurement, and also showed that the heat island effect of the Lanzhou city will strengthen.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期571-576,共6页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
甘肃省教育厅青年老师基金项目"基于生态位理论的兰州市土地利用变化及其驱动力研究"资助
关键词
热岛效应
灰色关联度
灰色预测
兰州市
heat island effect
grey relativity
grey prediction
Lanzhou city
