摘要
水循环某环节供需失衡可影响区域水资源系统整体平衡,整体平衡格局影响区域经济协调发展。本研究以福建省为例,构建指标体系以表征其水循环系统各环节的水资源供需平衡(WRSDB),采用赋权加和法、K-means cluster、Theil Index等方法分析WRSDB区域分异。结果表明:①WRSDB水平区域差异幅度变化的主导因素是用水效率;②静态WRSDB格局,闽东沿海地区强于闽西北和厦门,其主导因素是用水效率和水资源丰度;③动态WRSDB格局,降水由丰转平,丰水区WRSDB水平的发展快于其他地区;由平转枯,较缺水但水利投入较大地区维持WRSDB能力较强,说明降水充足区WRSDB不能只考虑水量平衡。中长期闽东南经济较发达区WRSDB能力的发展滞后于闽西北。WRSDB动态变化的主导因素是用水效率,不过从中长期来看,需水趋势、供水能力对WRSDB的影响将逐渐增强。海峡西岸经济区建设将增大水资源需求压力,为此应着重调控决定需水的人口和GDP的影响因素。
Good spatial patterns of Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance （WRSDB） are very important to the harmonious development of regional economy. Water resources are abundant in Fujian province. However, the spatial differentiation and temporal variation of water resources don＇t match with the water demand preference. To evaluate different spatial patterns of WRSDB, nine districts of Fujian province were established as evaluation units, and their WRSDB levels were represented by indicators system. Indicators data of evaluation units from 1997 to 2006 were collected, and indicators data in 2010 and 2015 were forecasted by nonlinear regression and auto-regression by SPSS. WRSDB index of every unit in each year was evaluated by a weighted summation model, and was analyzed by K-means cluster, Theil index and Pearson correlation coefficient. The results showed that spatial differentiation extent of WRSDB was mainly affected by water use efficiency. Statically speaking of WRSDB patterns as a whole, the average WRSDB index is higher in the eastern units than in the northwestern units and Xiamen from 1997 to 2015, and such situation is mainly caused by spatial variation of water use efficiency and water resources abundance. Dynamically speaking, WRSDB is weaker in units with abundant water resources than those with shorter precipitation resources with abundant rainfall over the years. On the contrary, WRSDB develops better in units with abundant water resources than those with shorter precipitation resources with abundant turning to normal rainfall over the years. However, in year of drought, WRSDB in the units with shorter precipitation resources but better irrigation works exceeds the WRSDB of those with abundant water resources, indicating that it is not enough only to consider the balance effect of water quantity on WRSDB in regions with abundant water resources. WRSDB development rates in developed economy areas would lag behind the Northwest of the province in the coming decade. The dominant factors affecting the change of WRSDB spatial pattern is water use efficiency in the province, but the impact of the upward trend of water demand and water supply ability upon WRSDB will increase in the next decade. Therefore, with the development of the western economy section of Taiwan straits, demand stress of water resources will aggravate. It is necessary to emphasize the adjustment and regulation of population and GDP, which jointly determine the speed and quantity of water resources demand in Fujian province in the next decade.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期750-756,共7页
Resources Science
基金
福建省科技厅青年人才项目(编号:2006F3115)
泉州师范学院自选科技项目(编号:2007KJ003)
关键词
水资源供需平衡
空间分异
指标体系
福建省
Water circulation
Water resources supply and demand balance
Spatial differentiation
Assessment indicators system
