摘要
利用山西省108个气象台站1961-2005年逐年年平均气温、年降水量资料,应用Thornthwaite Memoriai模型估算了山西省气候生产潜力(TSPV),探讨气候生产潜力与实际产量的关系,分析气候生产潜力的时空变化特征以及对气候变化的响应。分析结果表明:该模型能够较好地反映区域农业生产实际;生产潜力空间分布特征表现出较为明显的纬向递减特征,南高北低、东高西低;近45a变化趋势并不显著,北部和晋东南中部增加趋势,晋中以及晋南为递减趋势;境内各地热量条件充足,降水是作物产量的主要限制因素,降水增减1mm,气候生产潜力增减0.4738～1.138之间,变率空间差异明显,表现出以东西-西南方向为斜轴向两侧递减的趋势,为全省受降水限制最显著区域。
The evapotranspiration climate productive potential （TSPV） in Shanxi Province was estimated by Thomthwaite Memoriai model using the annual mean temperature and precipitation data from 108 meteorological observatories during 1961--2005. The varieties of real productive and regional climate induced by TSPV as well as the spatial-temporal changing characteristics of TSPV were analyzed to present that the Thornthwaite Memoriai model can simulate reasonably the actual regional agricultural output. TSPV in Shanxi Province decreases with the increasing latitude and it is much larger in eastern part than that in western part of Shanxi Province. An inconspicuous temporal variety tendency of TSPV was founded in the whole province during the past 45 years except for slight increasing in southeastern part and slight decreasing in central part of Shanxi Province. It is worth noting that the variety of precipitation, a dominating factor for crop output, can lead to the increasing of TSPV from 0.473 8 to 1.138 with 1 mm precipitation increment. The simulation result indicated that the increasing of TSPV induced by precipitation was inhomogeneous in the whole province with the maximum increment in a zone characterized by northeast-southwest through the province and decreasing in border area, where was regarded as the most impressible region by precipitation in Shanxi Province.
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期567-571,共5页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
