摘要
本文基于景气指数、"宏观经济监测预警信号系统"及Probit模型方法,对当前的经济景气状况和走势进行了分析和预测。结果表明:先行合成指数和先行扩散指数同时在2008年10月出现谷底,预示着本轮经济周期波动的谷将出现在2009年的4月或5月。在全球金融危机的背景下,中国经济仍会保持"一枝独秀",2009年下半年我国将处于经济周期波动的上升阶段。但是我国外需仍然不振,保增长将主要靠内需,经济增长周期波动的回升将呈现U型走势。
We analyze and forecast the current business situations and future trend based on business index, the monitor early warning signal system on macro-- economy and Probit model. The conclusions show that the leading composite index and the leading diffusion index have hit bottom of business cycle in October 2008 simultaneously. So we can forecast the trough of this economic cycle will form in April or May of 2009. On the backgrounds of the global financial crisis of this year, China economy will maintain a relatively steady growth pace. It will be in a rise phase of economic cycle in the second half year of 2009, but the trend will be expected to be ‘U’ shaped because of external demand ran sluggishly in the same period.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期3-14,共12页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(项目号:70673009)
国家社会科学基金(项目号:08CJY018)
辽宁省创新团队项目(项目号:2007T049)的资助
