摘要
将国内多普勒天气雷达的反射率因子及径向风资料引入ARPS-3DVar同化系统进行同化,针对2006年登陆浙江苍南并造成严重影响的超强台风"桑美",探讨多普勒雷达资料同化对台风模拟初始场和预报场的改进作用。结果表明:利用ARPS-3DVar同化雷达资料可以明显改善6 h同化窗口内的降水、风场和回波结构,并能提高模式对中尺度雨团位置、强度的模拟能力;雷达资料初始场同化后模拟的台风涡旋和台风眼结构与位置更加接近实况,各物理量空间分布结构更具有明显中尺度特征,从而改善了台风路径和降水的预报。但模拟过程中台风强度模拟偏弱,有待进一步改进。
The mesoscale model ARPS and its data analyzing system ARPS-3DVar developed by CAPS of Oklahoma university has a good potential to utilize in China. Using ARPS and its 3DVar assimilation system, the Doppler weather radar （CINRAD-SA） reflectivity and radial velocity are assimilated. In order to test the effects of Doppler radar data on the initial field and on the forecast field, numeric study is carried out on super typhoon Saomai （0608） which lands at east China and causes a large damage. Comparison between experiments with and without radar data assimilation shows that Doppler radar assimilation can help obtain more realistic precipitation, wind and reflectivity structures within 6-hour initial time windows. The radar assimilation by ARPS-3DVar has the ability to improve the forecast on the mesoscale rain cell position and intensity. The improvement on typhoon track forecast is due to the effective adjustment of the typhoon vortex and eye structure by radar data assimilation. The result of precipitation forecast is improved significantly, mainly because of the physical quantities in assimilation test displaying typical characteristics of mesoseale system. However, there are some inadequate aspects still needing improvements in the stimulation of typhoon intensity.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期257-266,共10页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40575029)资助。
关键词
ARPS模式
雷达资料
三维变分同化
初始场
登陆台风
ARPS model
Doppler radar data
3D variational assimilation
initial field
landfalling typhoon
