摘要
本文根据水利水电工程施工导流特点，建立了施工导流风险计算的数学模型，把施工导流风险定义为导流泄水建筑物的最大泄水流量超过其设计最大泄水能力的概率．在该模型中，可考虑到天然来（洪）水的洪峰流量、洪水总量和洪水过程线的不确定性．在此基础上，探讨了确定施工导流最大泄水流量概率密度函数的方法，并提出了用Ｍｏｎｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ法计算施工导流风险的步骤和用简化近似法计算施工导流风险的公式．
Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model for risk calculation of diversion during construction is developed. The diversion risk is defined as the probability of the maximum discharge higher than the maximum design flood. In this model, the peak discharge of flood, flood total outflow and flood process are to be considered. The method for calculating probability density function of maximum discharge during construction is discussed and calculating program with Monte Calo method and a simplified formula for calculating diversion risk are suggested
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第4期33-37,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
