摘要
本文推导了能源消费总量、结构与碳排放量之间的关系式——即单位能耗碳排放系数的表达式,利用上海市1978年～2007年的历史数据,构建了上海市能源消费总量与经济总量、人口和产业结构之间的关系式。在此基础上,按照对2010年、2020年上海经济增长速度的估计预测能源消费总量,模拟出不同情景下的能源结构,从而测算上海市各主要年份的碳排放总量,分析上海市碳排放总量、人均碳排放和碳排放强度的演变趋势。
The thesis estimates the relationship carbon emissions at first - carbon emission factor structure, and constructed the formula of Shanghai among total energy consumption, energy structure and of one energy consumption unit under different energy economic growth, total energy consumption and the resident population by using the history data of Shanghai in 1978 - 2007. On this basis, the thesis derives the evolution of trends of total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the main Year in Shanghai under different scenarios of energy structure in accordance with the rate of economic growth.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期79-87,共9页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
关键词
碳排放
能源消费
能源结构
carbon emissions, energy consumption, energy structure
